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NOTE INVESTORS FORUM MEETUP ~ WEDS 2/5/20

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The February 2020 Note Investors Forum Meeting
will be Wednesday, February 5th 11:30am-1:30pm

La Famiglia Restaurant, SE corner of Dobson & Guadalupe, Mesa

Special Guest Speaker:   Howard Tenn  

Topic: 
Risk vs Reward   |    Greed vs Fear      

Howard is a protiage of Stan Harley, January’s guest speaker.  He will follow-up on Stan’s presentation. Preparing for 11/22 —

Prepare yourself for the next BIG Correction.
What happens when the music stops?

Being a former financial planner, Howard understands this topic.    
 
SAVE THE DATE.
MARK YOUR CALENDAR
YOU WANT TO BE IN ATTENDANCE!!!
FOR WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 5th
NOTE INVESTORS FORUM 

The room is maxed out @ 55 attendees.

Lunch served.

Click on the link below to reserve your spot.
$16.83 includes networking, education, lunch, tax and tip.
$20 at the door.

 

HOW TO READ BODY LANGUAGE

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Several years ago–going way back to the late 1990’s I had the pleasure of meeting and working with HOW TO READ BODY LANGUAGEJeffery Combs of Golden Mastermind Seminars in a large MLM venture.  Subsequently, Jeffery went on to build a huge personal development business. Prior to meeting Jeff, I had a fair amount of sales training via Dale Carnegie and the AMWAY business.

So what’s this post about? Bottom line —working with people and watching their body language. If you work with or interact people the year 2020 is no different than 1990 or 1998. This post is about integrating people skills into what ever business you are in. Notes, investing, real estate or whatever. It even works in personal realtionships!!!  Technology is great, but people skilss is where the rubber really meets the road.

The full article is below, but you can also click on the picture to access the article and Jeffery’s site.

Personally I Read Body Language @ the Note Investors Forum Meetup and every time I speak on stage or even on the phone–which is can be done by listening very carefully to voice inflections.

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HOW TO READ BODY LANGUAGE

Connecting with people is easy.

You shake their hand, say hello, and ask genuine questions to get to know them.

But do you know what the person is saying beyond their words?

Let’s face it…

…If you can’t read between the lines of what they are saying or aren’t paying attention to their body language… you are missing the boat!

I know…

I’ve been in sales for over 35 years and have been a success and addiction coach for 20 years PLUS!

It’s critical that you understand how to read energy, body language, non-verbal communication, what is meant along with what’s said, and be able to read why people do what they do.

Why… you ask?

Because body language and non-verbal communication can account for over 60% of what is being communicated.

So today, I’m going to teach you how to read the signs.

DISCOVERING PREDICTABILITY

A frown means someone is sad or disappointed.

An upturned mouth means a person is happy.  You learned this at a very young age without anyone formally teaching you.

Over time, you began interpreting expressions and body language.

Here’s what you require knowing today…

Human beings are predictable. The more you understand people’s predictability, the better you will be it be able to adapt and adjust to the situation.

NOW, to be in an emotional space to read people on a deeper level, you have to get beyond the fear of judging people. Being able to read people effectively DOES NOT mean you’re judging them.

It means that you live in a know state… That’s K-N-O-W. Not N-O. Meaning you see the signs, interpret them, and KNOW what is communicated.

Have you ever seen someone who broods and pouts? Their bottom lip comes up over their top lip. Then their energy drops.

Have you ever encountered someone who’s hostile and unapproachable and you could tell how angry he or she was without talking to him or her?

These are just a few examples of non-verbal communication that you require interpreting to understand body language.

So here’s the thing…

The psychology of reading body language is not that difficult once you become aware of the signs.

INTERPRETING THE SIGNS

Watch the person’s eyes.

When you ask someone a question… a simple a yes-no question like,  “Have you ever considered starting your own business?” And the person answers with the sound, “Um” followed by a “Well…”

Realize these are stalling words. They are a CLUE you know you’re going to receive a story.

Pay attention to words of indecision like guess, kind of, and sorta. These are words of non-commitment.

When you ask someone a question, and they cross their legs or cross their arms… This is a clue that they are shut off or overwhelmed.

If the person has very little or a tense facial expression, their body is turned away from you, or their eyes are downcast, maintaining little contact… this typically means they are disengaged, not interested, or unhappy.

On the other hand, when you ask a person a question, and they respond immediately, this is a positive sign.

Here’s a bigger clue…

If they use a superlative like: Yes, Absolutely, or Unequivocally… this is a sign that the person is decisive. They are someone who can commit.

Examples of positive body language signs include: having an open body position… that means the arms are unfolded and hand gestures will face up. The person will hold an upright posture and have a relaxed facial expression. There will be regular eye contact… And the person’s arms will be relaxed by their sides when they are not gesturing.

UNDERSTANDING WHAT’S MEANT AND NOT SAID

O.K.

Here is one of the biggest secrets when it comes to reading the signs.

As you observe the body language of a person, also PAY ATTENTION to what’s meant… not what’s said.

What does that mean?

You can intuitively know what they mean by what they say.

I’ve been a sales professional for 35 plus years. Often, people tell me what they think I want to hear.

Here are some examples:

“Yeah, what I’m going to do is look over this information, and I’m going to get back with you.”

“Yeah what I’m going to do is hire you just as soon as I get my money together.”

“Um… I’ll call you after the holiday.”

“This sounds great BUT… I have to run it by my spouse.”

It’s your responsibility to understand who means what they say and who’s telling you what they think you want to hear.

When someone says to me, “I’m sure you can appreciate I have to run to buy my husband.” In reality, I appreciate someone who can make a decision. The person is assuming that I’m going to agree with them.

Now, I’m not going to disagree with them, but I understand what that means. I also know that some people DO require to speak with a significant other. I do understand that they require to get approval from someone else or acknowledgment.

BUT I also ask a question to test the situation.

“Can you close your husband?”

“Can you close your significant other?”

“Are you going to be able to ask for a loan from your bank?”

These are situations where you learn to ask further questions.

GETTING GOOD AT READING PEOPLE

When you get good at reading people, you can see the non-verbal communication in their eye irises. You can see it in the smirks in their face. You can see the downtrodden corners of their mouth. You can see how high or low their energy is.

And by interpreting the tone of a person’s voice, you can hear vibrationally where he or she is coming from.

Be attentive when you ask a question.

Does the person cross his or her legs? Do they look away? Does his or her eye iris’s go up and out? Does the sound “UM” come out of his or her mouth? Does the person start telling you a story completely unrelated to the question you ask?

Watch the person’s body language. See how closed and contained he or she is…

…or how open he or she is.

These are all telegraphs… They are signs.

The more you pay attention to the signs, practice interpreting the non-verbal communication, and read body language… the better you will become at the science of reading people.

 

 

STAN HARLEY OPENS 2020 @ PHX NOTE INVESTORS FORUM

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The January 2020 Note Investors Forum Meeting will be
              Wednesday, January 8th 11:30am-1:30pm
La Famiglia Restaurant, SE corner of Dobson & Guadalupe, Mesa

Special Guest Speaker:   Stan Harley  
                          
Topic: 
Economic Predictions – 2020 and beyond      

Stan Harley and his market insights/wisdom 
have made Stan the Note Investors Forum Meetup favorite speaker. Stan has shared the stage with Harry Dent
and other well known economists.
If you have not heard Stan speak in the past,

YOU NEED TO SAVE THE DATE.
MARK YOUR CALENDAR
YOU WANT TO BE IN ATTENDANCE!!!
FOR WEDNESDAY JANUARY 8th
NOTE INVESTORS FORUM 

The room is maxed out @ 55 attendees.

Lunch served.

Click on the link below to reserve your spot.
$16.83 includes networking, education, lunch, tax and tip.
$20 at the door.

Note Investors Forum Meetup – Phoenix

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The Next Note Investors Forum Meeting will be

              Wednesday, November 6th 11:30am-1:30pm
La Famiglia Restaurant, SE corner of Dobson & Guadalupe, Mesa

TOPICS:      Trends In The Note Industry
Highlights from the NoteExpo
Scatter Shooting
Case Studies

Price $16.84 with online registration
$20.00 @ the door
Includes lunch, beverage, information and networking
EVENTBRITE TICKETS @

 


What The Heck Is My Note Worth Anyway?

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Factors Affecting the Value of Mortgage Notes

When you start the process of selling your mortgage note it’s important to keep in mind that how much a mortgage note sells for mostly comes down to risk. Typically, the less risk involved in the note, the greater its market value.

Value of Property

One of the first things a note-purchasing company looks at is the value of the property that serves as collateral on the note. The current market value of the residential or commercial real estate listed on the note can increase or decrease the note’s market value.

Keep in mind, the amount listed on the mortgage typically is not the same thing as the current value on the property, or the amount for which the property was last purchased. Real estate values can fluctuate over time. If you’re not sure of the current value of your property, online resources such as Zillow can provide a rough estimate. During the note-selling process, a more precise quote is given.

A factor which affects property value is the actual type of the property. Typically single family dwellings maintain higher values than other property types like condos or manufactured homes.

Equity from Buyer

The equity the real estate’s owner has in the property factors into the value of the note. This includes the amount of the down payment, as well as payments already received from the property owner.

When a payer has invested a significant portion of his or her own assets into the real estate, the payer has a vested interest in the real estate and is less likely to default on the loan. Thus, a mortgage note with a significant level of equity from the buyer presents a lower risk.

The more equity the homeowner has, the more money a note seller is typically able to get for the note.

Property Owner’s Credit Score

The mortgage note owner’s creditworthiness does not factor into the sale of the note, but the property owner’s creditworthiness does.

The higher the credit score of the property owner, the higher the value of the note. More creditworthiness in the owner means the person purchasing the payments is taking on less risk. Because the buyer of the note is assuming less risk, that money is passed on to the seller.

A low credit score does not automatically mean the note can’t be sold. Other factors such as payment history on the note, and the payer’s equity in the property, can help in cases where a low credit score hurts. Still, a lower score means more risk and thus degrades the note’s value.

Payment History on Note

Payment history on the note also determines how much a mortgage note is worth. This concept is often described as notes either being “performing,” meaning having regular payments, or “non-performing,” which means the payments have not been paid on time.

Being able to show a strong payment history from the property owner can make your mortgage note more valuable.Most private mortgages are not reported to credit bureaus, and so the payments do not influence the payer’s credit score. Thus, positive credit history on the mortgage note can help compensate for a payor having a weaker credit score.

Recourse vs. Nonrecourse

If the payer on the private mortgage is a corporate entity, trust or nonprofit, it helps to have an individual listed as the personal guarantee of the payer. By having a guarantee, it means the note has recourse in the event the entity, trust or nonprofit stops making payments on the loan.

The term “recourse” means the note has someone with whom recourse could be taken in the event the loan is defaulted upon. Though it does not bar it from being saleable, a nonrecourse note has significantly more risk, which degrades its value.

Other Factors

Interest rate and the length of a loan also help determine the value of the note. A higher interest rate and shorter loan term make for a more valuable note.

Other note terms, such as a rider on the mortgage affecting the term, can also affect its value. For instance, some private mortgage notes have a balloon rider. This type of rider lets smaller payments be made for a time, with one lump sum due at the end of the term. This would be instead of evenly distributing the amount due over a series of payments. Any rider affecting the payment schedule can affect the value of the note.

Getting to Know ITV & LTV with Dave Franecki & Kevin Shortle

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Recently I was interviewed by Kevin Shortle for his podcast. I think you’ll enjoy it………………

What are LTV and ITV? In this episode, Dave Franecki of Capstone Capital USA, LLC explains what these terms mean and dives deeper on how we can use them in our note investment conquests. Having 30+ years of experience in various aspects of the real estate industry, Dave’s range of experiences includes real estate brokerage, landlord, rehabber, fix and flips, loan officer, credit repair, investor mentor, building and land development, and note investing. With people constantly getting confused with loan to value and investment to value, Dave helps us clear up this confusion by citing some real deal applications and examples……….

There’s something to be said about experience in the business. If you don’t have the experience in the business, there’s no better way to learn quicker than from people who do have that experience. If you’re in the Arizona area, check out Dave and go to his Phoenix Note Investors Forum  meetup group. If you’re down there in the Phoenix area, it’s a nice meetup group. You’re growing it like crazy

property values, investment to value ratio, loan to value ratio, performing notes, non-performing notes, note investment

Getting To Know ITV And LTV With Dave Franecki

I’ve got a repeat guest for this episode. I’ve known Dave for years now. We saw each other again face-to-face. It’s been a while since we’ve seen each other really face-to-face in person. We were at the Noteworthy Convention and was able to spend a little bit of time with him. He spoke on stage, I spoke on stage and afterward we realized, “There are some other topics people need to talk about.” Dave Franecki, welcome.

 

CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL TRANSCRIPT

 

Metro Phoenix Real Estate Overview

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I understand many of the folks reading this post are not from Phoenix. You may find this interesting for now, then let’s revisit in a year and compare. Just sayin.

For Buyers:
The news media is filled with short-term predictions regarding the economy and how it will, or will not, affect real estate prices.  It’s understandable for buyers to want their home to appreciate in value after they purchase, who doesn’t?  However, there is far too much attention paid to short-term influences and fluctuations these days and not enough attention paid to the long view.  Real estate is a long-term investment for many people.  Despite the euphoria of 2005-2007 and the nightmare of 2008-2011, on average homes are selling 81.6% higher today than they were in the year 2000.  That’s an average appreciation rate of 4.3% per year over the course of 19 years.  Smaller homes appreciated the most over time while larger homes appreciated the least.  Homes under 1,000sf have appreciated 122% since 2000, an average of 6.4% per year.  Those between 1,000-2,000sf appreciated 106%, an average of 5.6% per year.  2,000-3,000sf appreciated 68% at 3.6% per year.  3,000-4,000sf appreciated 49% at 2.6% per year and homes over 4,000sf appreciated 11% at 0.6% per year.

For Sellers:
Average asking prices per square foot are up 9% over this time last year and they’re continuing to rise. However, not one individual price range has risen 9% or more; confusing, right? That’s because the sharp increase in the average has more to do with a growing market share of luxury active listings over $500K as inventory has plummeted everywhere else. The highest increase is within $200K-$250K, where sellers are asking 5.6% more than they were last year. That’s followed by listings over $1M where they’re asking 4.2% more and $500K-$1M at 4.0%.  All other price ranges are just 1-3% higher.  But are buyers paying?  Actually, many of them are! In the $200K-$250K range, the average sales price per square foot is still 0.8% higher than the average list price; and between $250-$300K the average sales price is 6.8% higher than the average list per square foot. Things change over $500K.  Between $500K-$1M there’s a -6.3% gap between asking price and sales price and over $1M the average sales price is -15.1% below the average asking price.

 

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report ©2019 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

Why Are Note Seasoning & Verifiable Payments So Important

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There are several items a note buyer should verify before purchasing a note. Both are related to the Payor. A note buyer needs to confirm the payor will continue to pay. We are buying a dependable cash flow. To that point, they are foundational. Details the impoortance of both.

 

OP-ED~~ Loan Modification Re-Defaults

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Recently I attended the NoteWorthy Convention in Scottsdale. Kevin Shortle spoke of opportunities in the note arena specifically loan modifications and non-GSE foreclosures and modifications. The following article was an op-ed in MSN Money and is so on target. With the changing economics on the horizon, the re-default rate will increase and may very endanger the US mortgage and housing markets.

Wall Street and the news media have paid considerable attention to U.S. home mortgage modifications, but not much notice has been given to the growing problem of re-defaults on these modifications. Re-defaults are a massive problem — and endanger the U.S. mortgage and housing markets. Many of these loans were guaranteed by the FHA

What is a mortgage modification? In the midst of the housing collapse more than a decade ago, mortgage modifications were rolled out to enable millions of delinquent homeowners to avoid having their home foreclosed. In its latest report, the nonprofit Hope Now consortium — the major source for modification data  — estimated that 8.7 million permanent mortgage modifications have been implemented in the U.S. since the end of 2007……….The 8.7 million permanent modifications do not include the temporary fixes that lenders have provided.  According to Hope Now, roughly 17 million temporary solutions have been rolled out under what’s called “Other Workout Plans.”  The two most important ones are called forbearances and repayment plans. Under these plans, millions of delinquent borrowers were provided a temporary deferment or reduction of the payments due until their financial condition improved. These temporary solutions are not reported under permanent modifications.  Nevertheless, owners given temporary workout solutions are considered current on the mortgage……………………….

In its most recent report for the first quarter of 2019, the OCC noted that 21% of the most recently modified loans had re-defaulted within six months.

More than 3 million loans guaranteed by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) that were in Ginnie Mae pools had been modified between 2008 and 2013.  A 2014 report found that they had performed badly. Roughly 57% of these modified loans had re-defaulted by 2013

Click Here To Read the Fill Article

 

 

Wall Street Banks Tettering on Limited Liquidity

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Two days ago a very close friend called me with a market alert. He said for the first time sine 2008, for 4 days in a row, the overnight lending market rate between banks utilized to keep bank liquid jumped to 10%. He asked me, “What is the normal hard money lending rate in real estate?” I answered 10%. To that point, that is a significant occurance. Does that mean banks liquidity is not there? Yes.

Then today I noticed an article on wallstreetparage.com discussing the very same topic.  In escense, the FED is buying up bank debt to keep up the banks liquidity. These are not small time banks–rather the big ones like Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley.

Also, Deutsche bank is leading the pac of il-liquidity.

“The worst of it is that regulators on neither side of the pond have seen fit to rein in the dangerous interconnections that Deutsche Bank has as a major derivatives counterparty with mega banks on Wall Street as well as other European banks. (See After a $354 Billion U.S. Bailout, Germany’s Deutsche Bank Still Has $49 Trillion in Derivatives.)

According to a 2016 report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Deutsche Bank is heavily interconnected as a financial counterparty to JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America as well as to big European banks. The IMF wrote that Deutsche Bank posed a greater threat to global financial stability than any other bank as a result of these interconnections. When the IMF made that assessment in 2016, Deutsche Bank had tens of billions of dollars more in market cap than it does today.”

Bottom line for the reason of his call–watch what youpay for assets. Some hedge funds/banks are dumping assets to achieve liquidity.

Capstone has always been a value buyer, NOT  a speculative buyer. To that point, we only buy if there is a large safety net. THE WORD OF THE TIME IS–“SAFETY”

The following article is from www.wallstreetparage.com.

 

What Has Frightened Wall Street Banks from Lending in the Repo Market?

Last Friday the Federal Reserve Bank of New York made it clear that its interventions in the overnight repo lending market were going to be a longer-term action. Call it what you will, the Fed has effectively returned to quantitative easing (QE) where it buys up Treasuries, Federal agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from financial institutions in exchange for loans.

According to the New York Fed, the program has now been extended to at least October 10 and likely thereafter in one form or another. The Fed will be pumping in $75 billion daily in overnight repo loans while infusing $30 billion in 14-day term loans three times this week for a total of $90 billion in term loans.  Click Here For the Full Article