Recently I attended the NoteWorthy Convention in Scottsdale. Kevin Shortle spoke of opportunities in the note arena specifically loan modifications and non-GSE foreclosures and modifications. The following article was an op-ed in MSN Money and is so on target. With the changing economics on the horizon, the re-default rate will increase and may very endanger the US mortgage and housing markets.
Wall Street and the news media have paid considerable attention to U.S. home mortgage modifications, but not much notice has been given to the growing problem of re-defaults on these modifications. Re-defaults are a massive problem — and endanger the U.S. mortgage and housing markets. Many of these loans were guaranteed by the FHA
What is a mortgage modification? In the midst of the housing collapse more than a decade ago, mortgage modifications were rolled out to enable millions of delinquent homeowners to avoid having their home foreclosed. In its latest report, the nonprofit Hope Now consortium — the major source for modification data — estimated that 8.7 million permanent mortgage modifications have been implemented in the U.S. since the end of 2007……….The 8.7 million permanent modifications do not include the temporary fixes that lenders have provided. According to Hope Now, roughly 17 million temporary solutions have been rolled out under what’s called “Other Workout Plans.” The two most important ones are called forbearances and repayment plans. Under these plans, millions of delinquent borrowers were provided a temporary deferment or reduction of the payments due until their financial condition improved. These temporary solutions are not reported under permanent modifications. Nevertheless, owners given temporary workout solutions are considered current on the mortgage……………………….
In its most recent report for the first quarter of 2019, the OCC noted that 21% of the most recently modified loans had re-defaulted within six months.
More than 3 million loans guaranteed by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) that were in Ginnie Mae pools had been modified between 2008 and 2013. A 2014 report found that they had performed badly. Roughly 57% of these modified loans had re-defaulted by 2013